Single climate model annual, temperature

The downscaling and selection of models for inclusion in ten and four model ensembles is described in Pierce et al. 2018 , but summarized here. Thirty two global climate models (GCMs) were identified to meet the modeling requirements.

From those, ten that closely simulate California’s climate were selected for additional analysis ( Table 1, Pierce et al. 2018 ) and to form a ten model ensemble. From the ten model ensemble, four models, forming a four model ensemble, were identified to provide coverage of the range of potential climate outcomes in California. The models in the four model ensemble and their general climate projection for California are: HadGEM2-ES (warm/dry), C anESM2 (average), CNRM-CM5 (cooler/wetter), and MIROC5 the model least like the others to improve coverage of the range of outcomes.