Potential for northward expansion of the American dog tick (Dermacentor variabilis, Say) range under climate change in North America

To develop the model, we used environmental data from 10 climate models, four climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two future years (2050 and 2070), and tick occurrence data (presence-only) from museum and laboratory archives.

The baseline climate and occurrence data covers the time period of 1950 to 2015. The future climate data covers the time periods 2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080. Collection of occurrence data was conducted in the summer and fall of 2015 and collection of environmental data occurred in December 2014.