Probabilistic aspects of meteorological and ozone regional ensemble forecasts

Twenty-eight ozone forecasts were generated over the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada, for the 5-day period 11-15 August 2004 and compared with 1-hour averaged measurements of ozone concentrations at five stations. The forecasts were obtained by driving the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) model with four meteorological forecasts and seven emission scenarios: a control run, +/- 50% NOx, +/- 50% volatile organic compounds (VOC), and +/- 50% NOx combined with VOC.

Probabilistic forecast quality is verified using relative operating characteristic curves, Talagrand diagrams, and a new reliability index. Results show that both meteorology and emission perturbations are needed to have a skillful probabilistic forecast system: the meteorology perturbation is important to capture the ozone temporal and spatial distribution and the emission perturbation is needed to span the range of ozone concentration magnitudes.