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Data · dataset · 2026

Using random forests to diagnose aviation turbulence

Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research

Atmospheric turbulence poses a significant hazard to aviation, with severe encounters costing airlines millions of dollars per year in compensation, aircraft damage, and delays due to required post-event inspections and repairs.

Description

Moreover, attempts to avoid turbulent airspace cause flight delays and en route deviations that increase air traffic controller workload, disrupt schedules of air crews and passengers and use extra fuel.

For these reasons, the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration have funded the development of automated turbulence detection, diagnosis and forecasting products. This paper describes a methodology for fusing data from diverse sources and producing a real-time diagnosis of turbulence associated with thunderstorms, a significant cause of weather delays and turbulence encounters that is not well-addressed by current turbulence forecasts.

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The data fusion algorithm is trained using a retrospective dataset that includes objective turbulence reports from commercial aircraft and collocated predictor data. It is evaluated on an independent test set using several performance metrics including receiver operating characteristic curves, which are used for FAA turbulence product evaluations prior to their deployment. A prototype implementation fuses data from Doppler radar, geostationary satellites, a lightning detection network and a numerical weather prediction model to produce deterministic and probabilistic turbulence assessments suitable for use by air traffic managers, dispatchers and pilots.

The algorithm is scheduled to be operationally implemented at the National Weather Service's Aviation Weather Center in 2014.

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Provenance · 1 source records, 7 field assertions
SourceKeyLast seenRaw
National Center for Atmospheric Research6b9cc546-3946-44d8-acad-e1f184b967ac11 d agoJSON v1
FieldAssertionExtractorEvidence
concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmentalmapping · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmosphericmapping · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
created_datesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
descriptionsource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0/notes
publication_datesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
titlesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0/title
updated_datesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0