Mapping present and future predicted distribution patterns for a meso-grazer guild in the Baltic Sea

Using Ecological niche modelling, we map predicted distribution patterns under recent and future climate change scenarios (2050) for a food-web consisting of a guild of meso-grazers (Idotea spp.), their host algae (Fucus vesiculosus and F. radicans) and their fish predator (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Brackish water species depend on two important abiotic factors: temperature and salinity.

We assess which of these environmental factors determines the distribution limits of the grazers in the Baltic Sea today. For species in a semi-enclosed sea area such as the Baltic Sea, climate-induced changes may lead to dramatic food-web effects. We assess the consequences of the predicted climate-induced habitat range changes for this unique Baltic community.