Computational modeling of large wildfires: A roadmap

Our methodology to simulate this phenomenon use s high-resolution dynamic models made of numerical weather prediction (NWP) mode ls coupled to fire behavior models to simulate fire behavior. NWP mode ls are capable of modeling very high re solution (< 100 m) atmospheric flows.

The wildland fire component is based upon semi-empirical formulas for fireline rate of spread, post-frontal heat re lease, and a canopy fire. The fire behavior is coupled to the atmospheric model such that low level winds drive the spread of the surface fire, which in turn releases sensible heat, latent heat, and smoke fluxes into the lower atmosphere, feeding back to affect the winds directing the fire. The se coupled dynamic models capture the rapid spread downwind, flank runs up canyons, bifurcations of the fire into two heads, and rough agreement in area, shape, and direction of spread at periods for which fire location data is available.