Uncertainty of tropical cyclone best-track information

Here, an attempt is made to quantify the position uncertainty using National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory information, as well as intensity uncertainty during times without aircraft data, by verifying Dvorak minimum sea level pressure (SLP) and maximum wind speed estimates during times with aircraft reconnaissance information during 2000-09.

In a climatological sense, TC position uncertainty decreases for more intense TCs, while the uncertainty of intensity, measured by minimum SLP or maximum wind speed, increases with intensity. The standard deviation of satellite-based TC intensity estimates can be used as a predictor of the consensus intensity error when that consensus includes both Dvorak and microwave-based estimates, but not when it contains only Dvorak-based values.