Influence of Aspen Serpentine Leafminer (Phyllocnistis populiella) on Burn Severity In Trembling Aspen (Populus tremuloides)

However, forest pests like the aspen serpentine leafminer (Phyllocnistis populiella) raise concerns about their potential to alter fire behavior by affecting forest structure and fuel conditions. This study evaluates whether leafminer outbreaks influence burn severity in aspen-dominated stands of northeastern British Columbia.

Using provincial and federal datasets from 2010 to 2020, fire-affected aspen stands were analyzed at a 200 m resolution, comparing areas with and without prior leafminer outbreaks. A random forest model assessed the effect of leafminer presence on burn severity, measured by the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), while controlling for 11 climate, topography, and vegetation variables. Among 10,326 aspen-dominated burn pixels, 21% showed leafminer presence.