<p>Comparison of AUCs for different models.</p>

Overall, the derived <i>R</i>_<i>0</i> estimates were 4.3 (95% HDI: 3.1–4.8) for a 5-day infectious period and 8.6 (95% HDI: 6.2–9.6) for a 10-day infectious period. The incubation period was estimated to be around 14.7 days (95% CI 11.6–20.1). The exposure time varies greatly depending on the density, ranging from nearly two days at low density to around four hours at high density.

These findings highlight high-density environments, such as conditions in livestock markets, as an important factor of PPRV transmission between animals and the disease spread. Considering the high frequency of animals’ movement on long distances, the high incubation period, about 15 days, might be one of the factors explaining the spread of PPR along long distances from the source of infection. To efficiently control and eradicate PPR, sheep and goats’ movement control must be one of the means to be applied.

Our findings, based on a single lineage IV PPRV strain (Senegal 20-GP) evaluated under experimental conditions, suggest that the adequacy of the current 21-day quarantine period, as specified in the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) <i>Terrestrial Code</i>, deserves further evaluation and validation under field conditions.</p></div>