False positive Kepler planet candidates

We use Monte Carlo methods based on stellar population synthesis and Galactic structure models, and report false positive probabilities (FPPs) for every Kepler Object of Interest, assuming a 20% intrinsic occurrence rate of close-in planets in the radius range 0.5R_{earth}_<R_p_<20R_{earth}_.

Nearly 90% of the 1235 candidates have FPP<10%, and over half have FPP<5%. This probability varies with the magnitude and Galactic latitude of the target star, and with the depth of the transit signal - deeper signals generally have higher FPPs than shallower signals. We establish that a single deep high-resolution image will be an effective follow-up tool for the shallowest (Earth-sized) transits, providing the quickest route toward probabilistically validating the smallest candidates by potentially decreasing the FPP of an Earth-sized transit around a faint star from >10% to <1%.