CCS Projections for highly migratory species

Species distribution models (SDMs) outputs were previously fitted using boosted regression trees (BRTs) models with physical environmental variables. These variables were extracted from an implementation of the regional ocean modelling system (ROMS) for the California Current region (Neveu et al., 2016) using historical re-analysis (1980-2010) and a near real-time product (2011-2020; oceanmodeling.ucsc.edu).

The ROMS domain covers the region 30-48 N and 115.5-134 W (midway down Baja California to just south of Cape Flattery, WA) with 0.1 degree (~10 km) horizontal resolution and 42 terrain-following vertical levels (Veneziani et al., 2009). To force the HMS projections, we use daily output from the three downscaled ocean projections for the CCS. These downscaled projections are based on an implementation of the same 0.1 degree ROMS domain described above, with bias-corrected forcing obtained from three earth system models (ESMs) for the period from 1980 to 2100 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario (Pozo Buil et al., 2021).