Planning for an uncertain future: Climate change sensitivity assessment toward adaptation planning for public water supply

This study leverages the modeling capacity of an operational National Weather Service River Forecast Center to explore the potential impacts of future climate-driven hydrologic changes on factors important to planning at the Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities (SLC).

Hydrologic modeling results for the study area align with prior research in showing that temperature changes alone will lead to earlier runoff and reduced runoff volume. The sensitivity of average annual flow to temperature varies significantly between watersheds, averaging −3.8% °F⁻¹ and ranging from −1.8% to −6.5% flow reduction per degree Fahrenheit of warming. The largest flow reductions occur during the high water demand months of May-September.