Linkage between projected precipitation and atmospheric thermodynamic changes

The underlying processes for these precipitation changes are not fully understood. Here, projected precipitation changes are analyzed using 3-hourly data from simulations by a fully coupled climate model, and their link to the CAPE and CIN changes is examined.

The model approximately captures the spatial patterns in the mean precipitation frequencies and the significant correlation between the precipitation frequencies or intensity and CAPE over most of the globe or CIN over tropical oceans seen in reanalysis, and it projects decreased light-moderate precipitation (0.01 1 mm h(-1) ) in a warmer climate. Results show that most of the light-moderate precipitation events occur under low-CAPE and/or low-CIN conditions, which are projected to decrease greatly in a warmer climate as increased temperature and humidity shift many of such cases into moderate-high CAPE or CIN cases.