Comparative Analysis of Chin’s HIV/AIDS Burden Surveillance Data: A Study Based on CDC and GBD Estimates from 2010 to 2021 Gan Yichao2, Lan Guilian1. 1The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, China; 2Leping Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingdezhen 333321,China

Data on HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality in China from 2010 to 2021 were collected from CDC and GBD 2021 database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess trends, while coefficient of variation (CV) was employed to evaluate data fluctuation. Absolute differences, ratios, and percentage differences between the two data sources were calculated, and visual trend charts were constructed for comparative analysis.Results There were significant discrepancies between CDC and GBD datasets regarding HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality in China.

CDC data showed a marked increase in incidence and rate (EAPC = 11.513% and 11.101%, respectively), while GBD data suggested a decreasing trend (EAPC = –2.912% and –3.490%, respectively). Since 2012, GBD incidence estimates have remained consistently lower than those from CDC. The fluctuation in incidence numbers was similar between the two (CV: 34.598 vs. 33.764), but GBD exhibited greater variability in incidence rates (ΔCV = 2.144).

Both CDC and GBD showed consistent upward trends in HIV/AIDS mortality (EAPC difference <0.1%), with GBD estimates generally higher. Mortality data exhibited highly consistent fluctuation patterns (ΔCV for mortality rate < 0.21). Further analysis revealed persistent absolute differences in incidence and mortality figures post-2010, with the largest incidence gap in 2019 (38,565 cases) and mortality gap in 2017 (16,664 cases).

Ratio analysis showed GBD incidence estimates were generally lower (except in 2010–2011), while GBD mortality figures consistently exceeded those from CDC (ratios ranging from 1.352 to 2.101). Overall, mortality data were more consistent across sources, while greater divergence existed in incidence estimates.Conclusion From 2010 to 2021, CDC and GBD mortality data in China showed consistent upward trends with highly similar fluctuation patterns.

However, major discrepancies were observed in incidence trends—CDC reported significant increases, while GBD reported declines. The considerable differences in absolute values, ratios, and percentage gaps between the two sources suggest systemic divergence in surveillance mechanisms, estimation models, and data sources, which warrants careful interpretation and integrated application in future public health decision-making.