Can trait-based analyses of distribution change be transferred to new geographic areas?

By identifying traits that correlate with species range change, comparative studies can shed light on the driving mechanisms of this change; but such studies will be more useful for conservation if they have true predictive power – i.e., if their trait-based models can be transferred to new regions. We tested the ability of trait-based models to predict plant distribution change across seven geographic regions (Flanders and six regions in Britain) that varied in terms of land-cover and species composition.

We discovered that transferability between regions was positively correlated with land cover similarity, and therefore conclude that trait-based models have potential for predicting broad scale changes in species distributions in regions that share similar land-cover composition. This poster was presented at the 6th International Conference of the International Biogeography Society in Miami in January 2013.