Influence of Arctic stratospheric ozone on surface climate in CCMI models

All models simulate a connection between ozone variability and temperature/geopotential height in the lower stratosphere similar to that observed. A connection between Arctic ozone variability and polar cap surface air pressure is also found, but additional statistical analysis suggests that it is mediated by the dynamical variability that typically drives the anomalous ozone concentrations.

While the CCMI models also show a connection between Arctic stratospheric ozone and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with Arctic stratospheric ozone variability leading to ENSO variability 1 to 2 years later, this relationship in the models is much weaker than observed and is likely related to ENSO autocorrelation rather than any forced response to ozone. Overall, Arctic stratospheric ozone is related to lower stratospheric variability.