Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors

We found that the correlation between temperature and dengue was most positive at intermediate (near 24°C) temperatures, as predicted from an independent mechanistic model. Positive temperature–dengue associations were strongest when temperature variation and population density were high and decreased with infection burden and rainfall mean and variation, suggesting alternative limiting factors on transmission. Our results show that while climate effects on diseases are context-dependent they are also predictable from the thermal biology of transmission and its environmental and social mediators.