Gaia DR3 dormant compact-object binaries

Although Gaia astrometric orbits have already revealed a small sample of compact object binaries, many systems remain undetected due to stringent quality cuts imposed on the published orbits. Using a forward-modelling framework that simulates Gaia observables, in particular the re-normalised unit weight error (ruwe) and radial velocity (RV) scatter, we infer posterior distributions for companion mass and orbital period via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, marginalising over nuisance orbital parameters.

We validate our approach by comparing the predicted masses and periods against full orbit solutions from DR3, and by successfully recovering known compact object binaries as promising candidates. The method is best suited for systems with red giant primaries, which have more reliable Gaia RV scatter and a light centroid more likely dominated by one component, compared to main-sequence stars, and they are less likely to be triples with short-period inner binaries, which produce confounding signatures.