A Bayesian approach to understanding gender differences in tuberculosis disease burden

Using a simple, gender-stratified compartmental model, we employed a Bayesian approach to explore which factors most likely explain men's higher burden. We applied the model to smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in Viet Nam (2006-07) and Malawi (2013-14).

Posterior estimates were consistent with gender-specific prevalence and notifications in both countries. Results supported higher incidence in men and showed that both genders faced longer durations of untreated disease than estimated by self-reports. Prior untreated disease durations were revised upwards 8- to 24-fold, to 2.2 (95% credible interval: 1.7, 2.9) and 2.8 (1.8, 4.1) years for men in Viet Nam and Malawi, respectively, approximately a year longer than for women in each country.