Data · dataset · 2026
Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain.
Description
Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric COâ.
Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for COâ and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3âK from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4âK of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding COâ, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6âK by 2300, near a 2âK target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
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Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic COâ inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330âPgâC, from 1410âPgâC to 1080âPgâC. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232âPgâC. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America.
Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d76d5v5m ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/multicentury-changes-in-ocean-and-land-contributions-t… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=211008bb-757e-4a36-b5ff-838fd213d… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Simulation 75%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 211008bb-757e-4a36-b5ff-838fd213d1f3 | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[method].local:method:simulation | enrichment · data ucar edu | keyword-concept-rules@1.0.0 | title+description (75%) |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |