Aerosol-induced POAI loss and solar panel distribution in China (2001–2023)

Using satellite-derived irradiance and aerosol data, we quantify the impacts of aerosols on PV potential in China from 2001 to 2023 and investigate how solar panel deployment interacts with these impacts. On average, aerosols reduced national mean plane-of-array irradiance (POAI) by 10.6% (474.5 Wh m⁻² day⁻¹), with losses reaching 19% in the East and Central China grids.

Sulfate was the dominant contributor to POAI loss across most of China, whereas dust dominated in northwestern China. Temporally, a turning point occurred around 2007, separating an initial increase in POAI loss from a subsequent decrease driven by air pollution control policies. However, the eastward expansion of solar panels into more aerosol-affected regions after 2013 increased the aerosol exposure of installed panels, exacerbating POAI loss by 107.8 Wh m⁻² day⁻¹, exceeding the reduction associated with declining emissions (-86.1 Wh m⁻² day⁻¹) by 25%.