Land subsidence contributions to relative sea level rise at tide gauge Galveston Pier 21, Texas

We estimate subsidence rates of 3.53 mm/a during 1909-1937, 6.08 mm/a during 1937-1983, and 3.51 mm/a since 1983. Subsidence attributed to aquifer-system compaction accompanying groundwater extraction contributed as much as 85% of the 0.7 m relative sea level rise since 1909, and an additional 1.9 m is projected by 2100, with contributions from land subsidence declining from 30 to 10% over the projection interval.

We estimate a uniform absolute sea level rise rate of 1.10 mm +/- 0.19/a in the Gulf of Mexico during 1909-1992 and its acceleration of 0.270 mm/a(2) at Galveston Pier 21 since 1992. This acceleration is 87% of the value for the highest scenario of global mean sea level rise. Results indicate that evaluating this extreme scenario would be valid for resource-management and flood-hazard-mitigation strategies for coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico, especially those affected by subsidence.