Chronicle of a death foretold: Lepanthes nasariana (Orchidaceae, Pleurothallidinae), a newly described high-Andean orchid facing a worst-case climate change scenario

Newly discovered species are increasingly found to be threatened. For some, their formal description may already foretell their extinction, a phenomenon we here term the “ Nasar Effect. ” This phenomenon is inspired by the tragic fate of Santiago Nasar, the protagonist of Gabriel García Márquez’s Chronicle of a Death Foretold, whose impending death is known to everyone but himself. The Nasar Effect is particularly evident in climate-vulnerable ecosystems, where species may be projected for extinction based on dramatic climate-driven habitat loss.

We illustrate the “ Nasar Effect ” through the description of a new orchid species, Lepanthes nasariana (Lepanthes subsect. Breves), endemic to the cloud forests and páramos of the Western and Central Andes of Colombia, between 2,800 and 3,600 m elevation. The species inhabits mossy branches in shaded, humid environments and is most similar to L. mefueensis, from which it differs by its oblong-lanceolate leaves, falcate petal lobes, and narrowly ovate lip blades with an inflexed appendix, among other characters.

Based on its current extent of occurrence (27,502 km 2) and area of occupancy (12,775 km 2), L. nasariana is preliminarily assessed as Least Concern (LC) following the IUCN Red List guidelines. However, species distribution models projected to 2090 under the SSP 5–8.5 scenario indicate a 96 % loss of suitable habitat, which would qualify the species as Critically Endangered (CR) under Criterion A 3 (c). Without immediate and concerted global efforts to mitigate emissions, L. nasariana exemplifies the potential fate of many species described from climate-vulnerable ecosystems, such as the high Andean mountains, where they may already be on a predestined short path to extinction.