Seasonal variations in severe weather forecast skill in an experimental convection-allowing model

To do so, forecasts of severe weather hazards were produced and verified as in previous studies using CAM output, namely by thresholding the updraft helicity (UH) field, smoothing the resulting binary field to create surrogate severe probability forecasts (SSPFs), and verifying the SSPFs against observed storm reports.

SSPFs were most skillful during the spring and fall, with a relative minimum in skill observed during the summer. SSPF skill during the winter months was more variable than during other seasons, partly due to the limited sample size of events, but was often less than that during the warm season. The seasonal behavior of SSPF skill was partly driven by the relationship between the UH threshold and the likelihood of obtaining severe storm reports.