Steering flow sensitivity in forecast models for Hurricane Ian (2022)

Model forecasts continued shifting to the right and fi nally converged on Punta Gorda, Florida, as the landfall location, less than 24 h before landfall. In this short article, we hypothesize that the track of Ian depended on subtle interactions with an extratropical wave in the middle and upper atmosphere. Deterministic and ensemble model forecasts reveal that the interactions were very sensitive to the characteristics of this wave and the synoptic -scale fl ow in which the wave was embedded.

A 1 - 2 -dam difference in the geopotential heights played a major role in whether Ian moved north into the Panhandle or toward the east, making landfall in central Florida.