Table 1_Life cycle carbon footprint assessment and demand projection of China’s sustainable aviation fuel.xlsx

The PTL technology exhibits the highest carbon footprint, equivalent to 2.33 times that of conventional jet fuel. From 2030 to 2045, HEFA technology represents the optimal technical route FT and ATJ synthetic technologies have considerably higher costs. Although PTL presents outstanding decarbonization potential, its production cost is substantially higher than that of other technologies, resulting in poor economic performance.

By 2050, the carbon footprint of PTL will drop markedly by over 80% to 32.28 gCO₂eq/MJ. The carbon footprints of FT and ATJ will decrease by roughly 49% and 40%, while HEFA, a relatively mature technology, will only see a carbon footprint reduction of around 21%. The differences in economic performance and carbon emissions among the four technology routes compared in this study essentially stem from the variations in their feedstock systems, forms of energy input, and conversion reactions.

In the future, China’s sustainable aviation fuel development strategy should fully take into account feedstock supply capacity and the characteristics of each technological process, and establish an optimal industrial deployment pathway that balances environmental and economic benefits, thereby facilitating the achievement of the overall emission reduction targets of the civil aviation industry.</p>