NESM3 simulations for dynamical downscaling under four types of 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenarios

To better understand the climate response under stabilized, overshoot, and transient global warming, four types of ensemble experiments on 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenarios (i.e., stabilized 1.5 °C, 1.5 °C overshoot, stabilized 2°C, and transient 2°C) are elaborately designed using the Nanjing University Information Science and Technology Earth System Model (NESM). The reference period of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) is 1850–1899.

For the stabilized 1.5°C scenario (15 ks), the GMST warming should be stabilized at the level of 1.5°C (1.5 ± 0.1°C) above preindustrial levels for at least three decades by 2100. The 1.5°C overshoot (15 kos) scenario is similar to the stabilized 1.5°C scenario except that the expected multiyear GMST slightly overshoots before returning to the global warming criterion of 1.5°C by the end of the 21st century.