Supplementary file 1_Extreme climate shocks and agricultural net carbon sinks: the moderating role of supply chain resilience in China.docx

Agricultural supply chain resilience significantly conditions the climate–carbon relationship. Its resistance, recovery, and reorientation capacities attenuate the adverse associations of high-temperature, extreme-rainfall, and drought shocks with NCS. The low-temperature result further indicates that the effectiveness of resilience depends on matching supply chain functions with the biological mechanisms and intervention windows of specific climate hazards.

Heterogeneity analyses confirm that climate sensitivity and resilience requirements vary with regional location, agricultural productivity, modernization, and irrigation conditions. Complementary machine-learning analysis identifies nonlinear predictive patterns and reinforces the importance of differentiated adaptation.</p>Discussion<p>These findings extend agricultural climate research from production and emissions to an integrated carbon-balance perspective and demonstrate that hazard-specific supply chain resilience can support both climate adaptation and low-carbon agricultural development.</p>