Projected fishmeal and fish-oil requirements under global aquaculture expansion to 2040

Estimated fishmeal demand rose from 1.1 million tonnes in 2000 to 4.7 million tonnes in 2020, and reached 5.8 million tonnes by 2024. Similarly, fish-oil demand increased from 0.31 million tonnes in 2000 to 1.19 million tonnes in 2024. In 2020, marine shrimp and prawns represented the largest share of fishmeal demand, while salmonids were the primary contributors to fish-oil demand.

This underscores the importance of species composition in influencing future pressures on FMFO. Under the current-trend scenario, achieving the FAO 2040 milestone would increase global aquaculture production of aquatic animals to 153.7 million tonnes and require an estimated 98.4 million tonnes of feed, 9.6 million tonnes of fishmeal, and 2.0 million tonnes of fish-oil. This corresponds to 34.6 million tonnes of whole wild fish equivalents (about 38.3% of global capture fisheries production of aquatic animals in 2020) under the separate fishmeal/fish-oil method and 26.6 million tonnes under the combined co-product method (about 29.5% of global capture fisheries production of aquatic animals in 2020).

By contrast, in 2020, the whole wild fish equivalent demand for aquaculture stood at about 18.7 million tonnes under the separate method and 14.1 million tonnes under the combined method, accounting for about 20.7% and 15.7% of the 2020 global capture fisheries production. The 2040 current-trend projection, therefore, represents an 84.9% increase under the separate method and an 88.1% increase under the combined co-product method relative to the 2020 baseline.

These results indicate that, without major changes in feed efficiency, FMFO substitution, by-product use, or species-growth allocation, the FAO growth milestone could substantially increase pressure on wild fish resources. However, the alternative pathways show that the same production target can lead to very different outcomes. Under the diversified efficiency pathway, which combines improved feed efficiency and ingredient substitution with a greater allocation of production growth to non-fed and lower-FMFO species, feed demand declines to 70.9 million tonnes relative to the current trend pathway, fishmeal demand to 4.6 million tonnes and fish-oil demand to 1.1 million tonnes.

Whole wild fish equivalents decline to 15.5 million tonnes under the separate method and 11.8 million tonnes under the combined co-product method, representing reductions of 17.2% and 16.5% respectively, relative to the 2020 baseline. In contrast, the feed-intensive expansion pathway increases fishmeal demand to 10.9 million tonnes and fish-oil demand to 2.6 million tonnes, with whole wild fish equivalents rising to 41.4 million tonnes under the separate method and 30.7 million tonnes under the combined co-product method.

Our study suggests that if aquaculture continues to expand along its current fed/non-fed production trajectory, demand for fishmeal and fish-oil will rise sharply, placing greater pressure on wild fish stocks. Policy can change this outcome by steering a greater share of growth toward non-fed and lower-FMFO aquaculture, alongside more efficient feeds, responsible substitution and greater use of by-products.