Supplementary file 1_Climatic suitability assessment of pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) under current and future climate scenarios in the Mediterranean Region.docx

Ensemble-median suitable area increased in every scenario and period, reaching 23.5% under SSP2-4.5 and 23.4% under SSP3-7.0 by 2081–2100. The increase occurred mainly in low and moderate suitability, whereas high suitability remained within 3.8% of its current extent. Gains were concentrated across France, northern Iberia, the Po basin, the Balkans and central Anatolia, at mean elevations 157–237 m above the current suitable distribution.

Concurrently, 22.7–38.9% of currently suitable land was lost, mainly along the Atlas belt and Levantine corridor. Agreement among all five GCMs declined from 88.2–90.2% of ensemble suitable area in 2021–2040 to 67.3% under late-century SSP3-7.0. Projected net expansion therefore masks substantial geographical turnover and erosion of southern suitable areas.

Adaptation will require cultivar, rootstock and water-management responses in established regions, while emerging northern areas require site-specific evaluation of soils, water and pollination constraints.</p>