Extremes of severe storm environments under a changing climate

It is generally thought that such events would increase under a changing climate. How to evaluate this extreme behavior is a topic currently under much debate and investigation.

One approach is to look at the behavior of large scale indicators of severe weather. The use of the generalized extreme value distribution for annual maxima is explored for a combination product of convective available potential energy and wind shear. Results from this initial study show successful modeling and high quantile prediction using extreme value methods.