Data Sheet 1_Global trends, projections, and inequalities in overweight and obesity among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2040: a modelling study.pdf

By 2040, overweight and obesity prevalence are projected to reach 15.68% and 13.57%, respectively, with corresponding AAPCs of 1.66% and 2.76% during 2023–2040. From 1990 to 2040, overweight and obesity rates rose across all income groups, fastest in low- and middle-income countries and slower in high-income countries (HICs). SII estimates show that overweight disparities between lower- and higher-income countries declined from 15.27% in 1990 to 12.81% in 2022, and then to 9.32% by 2040, while obesity disparities increased from 6.71% to 13.80%, and then to 12.30%.

The RCI declined for both outcomes, indicating a reduction in their relative concentration in higher-income countries over time.</p>Conclusions<p>The global burden of overweight and obesity rose substantially from 1990 to 2022 and is projected to continue increasing through 2040, with the fastest projected growth in low- and middle-income countries and slower growth in HICs. Although the burdens of overweight and obesity remain disproportionately concentrated in higher-income countries, the degree of relative health inequality has gradually diminished over time.</p>