China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment

Here we provide a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of the environmental impacts of China’s growing demand on the country itself and on its trading partners. We find that the increasing food demand, especially for livestock products (~16%–30% across all scenarios), would domestically require ~3–12 Mha of dditional pasture between 2020 and 2050, resulting in ~-2% to +16% growth in agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

The projected ~15%–24% reliance on agricultural imports in 2050 would result in ~90–175 Mha of agricultural land area and ~88–226 MtCO2-equivalent yr-1of GHG emissions virtually imported to China, which account for ~26%–46% and ~13%–32% of China’s global environmental impacts, respectively. The distribution of the environmental impacts between China and the rest of the world would substantially depend on development of trade openness.